Lei feng's network: as mentioned earlier, "unmanned" hardware production is expected is expected to be 2020-2025 at the same time, automobile safety regulations have been introduced and perfected. ADAS is the key to smart drive landed, shares and acquisition are the way listed companies involved ADAS. This is a smart car: from ADAS to drone (part one) | Sequel to the depth, to continue to explore, unmanned related perceptual identification/map module will have domestic opportunities.
(Picture from the financial network)
| Components: perceived recognition/map and localization of modules is expected to usher in opportunity
Smart drive containing multiple components, perceptual identification module, maps and other components are expected to be made a breakthrough. To ADAS systems industry chain analysis, perception can determine the future identification, map components, such as localization module is expected to be a breakthrough, which due to related to vehicle control module, high technical threshold, still expected to be grasped by vehicle manufacturers and international parts giant hands.
According to China for intelligent network manufacture 2025 the independence of key auto parts rate provisions perceived recognition (mainly for the cameras and radar) and high-precision map localization system to be completed within the next 5 years will significantly advance.
Induction recognition module: development of multi sensor fusion
Induction recognition hardware: dominated by radar and camera, multi sensor fusion development. Current in-vehicle sensors-ultrasonic, radar, laser radar, millimeter-wave radar, camera, infrared sensor and other. Based on measurement capabilities and adaptability, is expected to become the mainstream sensors radar and cameras, multi-sensor fusion trends. Victorias Secret case for iPhone 6
Induction recognition module of mm-wave radar: incremental development, localization is achieved
Launch of millimeter-wave-band millimeter wave radar electromagnetic wave distance determined by obstacles reflection time, using the frequency shift of the reflected wave to determine relative velocity. Compared with infrared, laser and camera sensors, millimeter waves penetrate fog, smoke, dust and strong, with the clock (except on rainy days) all weather characteristics. Its limitation is that no object color recognition; field of view angle, usually require a combination of radar use weak reflected wave pedestrians, it is difficult to identify. Millimeter-wave radar is widely used in vehicle from detection, such as adaptive cruise, collision warning, blind spot detection, etc.
Current mainstream bands available for the 24 GHz and 77GHz, were used in the in the short distance and long distance measurement. Millimeter-wave radar bands available are 24GHz, 60GHz, 77GHz, 79GHz, mainstream 24GHz and 77GHz, 24GHz for short/medium distance, 77GHz for medium and long distance. High frequency, distance and speed of detecting the higher the resolution. Band trend is the transition from 24GHz to 77GHz: 1) the European Union, in 1997, the European Telecommunications Standards Institute recognizes 76-77GHz as anti-collision radar frequencies; 2) United States, 24GHz, and 77GHz two-band; 3) Japan, 60GHz, gradually moved to 77GHz;4) 2015 World Radiocommunication Conference in Geneva, 77.5-78.0GHz allocated to radiolocation operations, to support the development of high-resolution on-board radar over short distances ; 5) in 2005, the Ministry of information industry of the micro-power (short distance) of the technical requirements for radio equipment, 77GHz divides ranging radar vehicles in 2012, Ministry, 24GHz allocated to short-range car radar business.
Benefit from the development of ADAS, millimeter-wave radar chip shipments to grow rapidly. By 2020, global shipments of automotive millimeter-wave radar is expected to be up to 72 million. Domestic ADAS estimation of permeability in 2020 to reach 30%, ADAS requires 4 per set + 1 short millimeter wave radar long range radar, domestic shipments of up to 45 million, the size of the market will exceed 20 billion.
Global supplier of automotive millimeter-wave radar is mainly for traditional automotive electronics enterprises, such as Bosch, continental, etc. In 2015, Bosch, Continental's global market share amounted to 22%, subsequently to Hella, Fujitsu ten, Denso, TRW, Delphi, Autoliv, Valeo, traditional competitive enterprises.
Millimeter-wave radar localization will come true. Domestic manufacturers has exceeded core technologies, localization just around the corner. But of the more mature products only, Hunan Náray and Xiamen 24GHz short range radar, 77GHz radar has just started. Recommend: Asia-Pacific shares, four electronic, glarun and so on.
Asia-Pacific shares to 7 million Yuan to increase capital Hangzhou zhibo, received 10% shares of the company, layout of millimeter-wave radar operations. Four electronics controlling shareholders of East China Institute of electronic engineering, the millimeter-wave radar products are mainly used for Homeland Defense Intelligence, weather monitoring, fields. Glarun science and technology integrates the 14th Institute of high quality industrial resources in China, the main products include military and weather radar, airborne radar. Reboot Acer technologies is headquartered in Taiwan, providing a complete combination of 24GHz and 77GHz technologies, in support of ADAS applications and functions.
Induction recognition module of laser radar: cost reduction, is expected to become mainstream
LIDAR laser beams to probe the target position, speed and other features. Vehicle laser radar using multiple laser transmitters and receivers, three dimensional images, so as to achieve the purpose of real-time environment. Advantages of laser radar is the three-dimensional modeling, detection range, high precision. However, LiDAR for poor performance in snow and fog weather; expensive; the amount of data is too large.
At present, the LiDAR is used in a number of unmanned test vehicle:
1) Google and Baidu unmanned test vehicle uses the Velodyne 64 line LiDAR;
2) hybrid version of the Ford Mondeo install 32 lines of Velodyne lidar, third generation Fusion Hybrid equipped with 2 sets of Velodyne driving Solid-State HybridUltra PUCK Auto hybrid solid state laser radar;
3) Nissan LEAF carried 6 4 lines of Ibeo laser radar, testing of advanced driver assistance systems;
4) driverless cars of the Audi A7 Piloted Driving the Ibeo Valeo and Scala mixed solid state laser radar for cooperation;
5) Delphi unmanned vehicles equipped with 4 solid state laser radar developed by the Quanergy.
At present, there are rotating parts of laser radar technology is more mature, mainstream manufacturers abroad for Velodyne and Ibeo. Velodyne rotating laser transmitter and receiver approach, products covered by 16/32/64 line Ibeo fixed laser source, via an internal rotation of the glass changes direction of laser beam, multi angle detection, products include 4/8, Ou Baituo Ibeo domestic agents.
Solid state laser radar is the future trend, miniaturization and low cost advantages. Solid state laser radar without rotating parts, and smaller, easily integrated inside the body, and reliability increase, the costs would be greatly reduced. So to the development trend of solid state laser radar. Startup Quanergy with Delphi to develop out of the solid state laser radar, volume production planned for end of 2017, phased-array technology, there are no rotating parts. Traditional advantage enterprises Velodyne and Ibeo also introduced a hybrid solid state laser radar, don't see the rotating parts in appearance, but still rely on mechanical rotating laser scanning.
As early as 2015, driverless cars of the Audi A7 PilotedDriving using the Ibeo Valeo and Scala mixed solid state laser radar for cooperation, mass of a semi-automatic driving a car equipped with a Scala, the LiDAR is hidden within the bumper to replace radar do AEB ranging module.
In CES2016 Shang, has two paragraph solid/mixed solid laser radar displayed: 1) from Quanergy of solid laser radar S3, only for a box card size, single price preliminary set in 250 dollars, volume postpartum may fell to 100 dollars; 2) by Velodyne and Ford common released of mixed solid laser radar UltraPuck Auto, 2020 years plans volume produced price for 500 dollars, 2025 years plans put cost control in 200 dollars within.
LIDAR market in 2020 are expected to exceed 10 billion. We expect benefit from technological upgrading and capacity improvement of laser radar, 2020 laser radar costs alone are expected to reach 400, to install 2-4 vehicle laser radar (detection range) estimate corresponds to the entire cost of 800-1600 Yuan. According to the market before 2020 25% permeability permeability estimation, after loading the market 5%, the Chinese market is expected to nearly 20 billion.
There are several companies involved in the development and production of laser radar, applications include detection, three dimensional mapping of air pollution, cars and so on. Featured: giant technology.
Superstar technology last year to 200 million Yuan Hua da Jie 65% stakes, which is pushing laser technology upgrades, are the most important points of service robot (for example sweep the robot) and mobile devices (including unmanned vehicles, forklift AGV, robot) and in March of this year set up a subsidiary European laser technology, developer of laser radar and intelligence equipment.
Induction recognition module camera: leading position is strong, rapid development is expected to
Car camera the General principles are as follows:
1) image, the picture is converted to a two-dimensional data;
2) pattern recognition by image matching recognition, such as vehicles, pedestrians, lane markings, traffic signs, etc;
3) using the sport mode of the object, or both eyes positioned, estimating the target object and the distance and relative speed of the car.
Compared to other sensors, the camera closest to get environment information working model of the human eye, the advantage is that
1) camera technology is mature, low cost;
2) can get the most comprehensive information by smaller amounts of data.
However, the camera also has some limitations: Victorias Secret iPhone 6
1) under the influence of light, weather;
2) object recognition based on machine learning databases, need training, long training period, it is difficult to identify non-standard obstacle;
3) edge distortion in wide-angle camera, resulting from low accuracy.
Currently camera of application main has: 1) monocular camera, general installation in Qian wind glass upper, for detection vehicles ahead environment, recognition road, and vehicles, and pedestrian,, widely application Yu since adapted cruise, and lane deviated from warning, and Qian hit warning, and pedestrian monitoring, function in the; 2) Hou depending on camera, general installation in car tail, for detection vehicles rear environment, should for reversing Visual system; 3) stereo camera, or said binocular camera, using two a after precise calibration of camera while detection vehicles ahead environment, Achieve greater accuracy and longer detection range; 4) look around the camera, usually includes at least four cameras were installed in the front, rear, left, right, a 360 ° environment sensing, applied to automatic parking and panoramic views of parking system.
With the rapid promotion of ADAS permeability, the camera market is expected to grow rapidly. According to the IHS Automotive forecast 2021 car rearview camera system, shipments will reach 74 million units/year (2014 about 15 million units). Global leading automotive lens position in China, according to statistics from Chi Institute Advisory, produces about 8.62 million in 2013, China Automotive lens industry, exports accounted for about 60%. We expect bike ADAS ranging system with a 1-10 lens, 4 lens (front facing camera + sides + rear blind spot detection back image) conservative estimation, in 2020, China Automotive lens is expected to exceed 100 million in shipments, the market is expected to exceed 12 billion, CAGR is expected to exceed 70%.
Lens module: domestic camera industry's leading position is strong, is expected to rapidly. Optical lens is now widely used in areas such as mobile phone, car, cameras, due to the slowing growth of mobile phones and other digital products, industrial transfer of the camera to the car was evident. Domestic industry's leading edge status, such as the sunny optical rearview camera shipments currently 1th place, global market share of about 30%, has entered the big enterprises (BMW, Benz, Audi etc) installed before the market. We expect automotive lens business is expected to boost domestic industry leaders of the future performance of rapid growth. Recommended: Ou Feiguang, sunny optical, Taiwan Sheng to leave and so on.
Ou Feiguang camera module is traditional advantage enterprises, smart cars looking layout is expected to come to fruition. Ou Feiguang on camera module shipments not only beat the Pack, ahead of double camera module layout. Company forward layout intelligent car: 1) June 2015, established full funding subsidiary Shanghai Ou Fei intelligent car joint technology limited, full layout intelligent driving, and intelligent in the control, and "Internet +" hardware, and car electronic business; 2) company intelligent in the control part introduced line car manufacturers, currently has is baic new energy of a level suppliers, in CES Shang displayed has cooperation of ADAS car, and intends to 200 million Yuan shares baic new energy, extends new energy car full industry chain ; 3) placement 1.5 billion yuan for the construction of intelligent automotive electronic projects. Shipments of the sunny optical in-car camera market is the world's first, the market share of about 30%, for security level higher lead ADAS camera, sunny optical more than half of the market share.
Induction recognition module of infrared night vision: to grow, domestic faucet
Safety awareness promotion, infrared night vision is enormous room for growth. According to the United States National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTS) statistics, although night driving in road traffic as a whole only one-fourth, accidents accounted for half the night vision bad accidents caused by the 70%. With the attention, raise automobile safety and ADAS, infrared night vision is expected to be quickly promoted. The other hand, the 2015 infrared night-vision system penetration rate was only about 1%, packed in by 2020 estimation of penetration rate of 5%, single system around 2500 Yuan, then only the first load will be 3.8 billion yuan in the market space. Recommended: miles.
Baoqianli is the traditional advantage of night vision systems Enterprise, active layout of active automotive safety. September 2015, the Trinidad publishing will increase plan, proposed raising 1.99 billion yuan, of which 840 million Yuan on developing vehicle-use intelligent hardware-construction project in active safety systems, and will also build standardization of vehicle active safe system test center, consolidating the company's smart car technology products and market position.
High-precision map: oligopoly situation or maintain
Map is indispensable for drone based, industry leaders have a scarcity of competitive advantage. No one driving one of the most basic functions for navigation, its implementation needs according to their own GPS and high-precision map to determine the location and direction of travel. But drone using the map even more demanding: 1) GPS positioning precision centimeter level is reached (precision >1 meter); 2) needed to provide more accurate data to deal with complex driving environment. So Here, Mobileye are starting layout customized maps, traditional manufacturers such as Toyota have launched a new mapping technology. We believe that the domestic industry leading monopoly map the underlying data persistence, there are two main reasons: 1) map the underlying data mapping require long-term investment, higher input costs for new entrants; 2) map entry need to be qualified to apply for, the original leader maintain its dominant position in the industry, with the rapid development of the industry, recommended: navinfo and so on.
Navinfo front loading navigation market share lead, has bought technology for first, He Lian, Jie, with maps, chips, machines, OS, and all aspects of intelligent vehicle technologies such as speech recognition and OBD reserves.
Implementing agency
Attention smart car key executives, such as electronic braking, wheel motors, etc. Recommended: Wan an science and technology, the Asia Pacific share, top group.
Intelligent electronic system
Attention smart in-car electronic systems components, such as smart lights, HMI, look up display HUD, human-computer interaction. Recommended: Star shares, Dongfeng electronic technology, Sheng electronics, optical crystal.
Telematics
Unmanned ultimately must rely on connectivity, involving vehicle communications V2V, vehicle-road communication V2R V2I, the range of network communication, attention to prospective distribution enterprises. Recommended: Wan an science and technology, Asia-Pacific shares, shuanglin shares Sheng electronics, wing, xingmin, Wheaties shares, road communications, Taiwan company reboot Acer technology, Alpha networks, diet and so on.
ADAS, this report focuses on system integration and core components analysis at two levels of technology and market structure, and combs the relevant listed companies. We believe:
1) ADAS, as early stages of vehicle intelligent products, will be the first universal commercial; entrepreneurial company that's quite beyond me to focus on innovation is expected to win; by ADAS start-up companies with investment in shares of listed companies, prospective layout ADAS industry chain;
2) China manufacturing 2025 promoted perception recognition (main for camera and radar), and high precision map, component module localization wave: mm wave radar incremental development, localization has into commodity stage; laser radar miniaturization, and low cost of, and solid of into trend, is expected to became industry mainstream; camera domestic leading status solid, is expected to sharply growth development; infrared night depending on is has sharply growth space, concern leading enterprise; high precision map industry barriers high, and into qualification difficult, advantage enterprise or will continued monopoly pattern.
Risk factors
1) entered the field of intelligent handling of most listed companies equity participation and extensional dilation of mergers and acquisitions, business development and new business consolidation synergy needs to track validation; 2) future 1-2 product vacuum, low profit contribution from the smart drive; 3) standard valuations, or lack of margin of safety; 4) to reduce risk in listed company.
Investment strategies and recommendations
Drone is the ultimate development of automobile industry, but 1-2 intelligent automotive products of the future is relatively scarce and limited profit contribution; smart drive plate or continuing thematic market overvalued; acquired the subject matter of the market will become an important reference to the valuation factors. Maintaining "strong in the big city" rating. Recommendations focus on: Wan an science and technology, the tuopu group, Asia Pacific shares, Star Yu-Shuang Lin shares, shares, Sheng electronics, and so on.
"Special statement"
The information contained in this information only for professional investment institutions, only for the timely exchange of views in the context of new media research. Information contained in this information are excerpts from CITIC Securities Research Department, has published research reports or subsequent interpretation of the published report, if ambiguity due to the excerpts of the report, please refer to the full content on the day the report was released. This information is representative only judgments on the day the report was released, analysis and speculation may without notice make changes to readers when they refer to must also follow the latest advances in a timely manner.
This information not constitute on specific securities in specific price, and specific points, and specific market performance of judge or investment recommends, not can equivalent Yu guide specific investment of operation sex views, General of personal investors if using this information, has may will for lack interpretation service and on report in the of key assumed, and rating, and target price, content produced understanding Shang of ambiguity, then caused investment loss. Individual investors should seek guidance from the professional investment advisers. This information is for informational purposes only, and recipients should not rely on information from this data instead of its own independent judgment, should make independent investment decisions and bear the investment risk.
"Author"
Xu Yingbo: automotive industry, principal analyst, graduated from the Department of automotive engineering of Tsinghua University in 2007, CITIC Securities Research Department, new wealth gold analyst.
Chen Junbin: auto industry analyst, graduated from the Electrical Engineering Department of Xiamen University in 2010, Department of CITIC Securities study, Chinese Institute of certified public accountants.
Gordon: auto industry analyst, PhD graduated from Industrial Engineering Department of Tsinghua University in 2012, CITIC Securities ' Research Department.
Cui Yushuo: automotive industry analysts, master degree in Automotive Engineering Department of Tsinghua University, 2014 into CITIC Securities Research Department.
Detailed analysis see released on June 15, 2016, the smart car: from ADAS report on unmanned
Lei feng's network (search for "Lei feng's network", public interest) Note: please contact empower and retain the full information, articles must not be modified.
